The NFL draft is almost here. By now, nearly every mock draft is complete. There's still time for some more rumors to swirl, but very little will shift expectations about the early selections in Thursday's first round.
Let's break down the odds for each of the top 10 picks.
No. 1 overall odds
| Player (Position) | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Mendoza (QB) | -50000 | 99.8% |
Mendoza is the pick. Moving on.
No. 2 overall odds
| Player (Position) | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| David Bailey (EDGE) | -140 | 58.3% |
| Arvell Reese (EDGE) | +110 | 47.6% |
The Jets are expected to take the top pass-rusher in the draft, but it seems to be a coin flip between Reese and Bailey. Reese was the considerable favorite a few days ago, getting as short as -300, but reports began to leak that the Jets prefer Bailey. This spot could continue to flip-flop until markets close.
No. 3 overall odds
| Player (Position) | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Arvell Reese (EDGE) | +130 | 43.5% |
| Jeremiyah Love (RB) | +200 | 33.3% |
| David Bailey (EDGE) | +240 | 29.4% |
| Francis Mauigoa (OL) | +1000 | 9.1% |
The Cardinals want to trade this pick and could find a partner who's willing to make a move for one of the edge rushers or Love. These odds account for a potential trade as well as Arizona's need on the offensive line, which is why Mauigoa is the fourth favorite despite not being a factor in many other top-10 slots.
No. 4 overall odds
| Player (Position) | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremiyah Love (RB) | +125 | 45.5% |
| Sonny Styles (LB) | +160 | 38.5% |
| David Bailey (EDGE) | +450 | 18.2% |
| Arvell Reese (EDGE) | +650 | 13.3% |
| Carnell Tate (WR) | +1200 | 7.7% |
Love seems most likely to end up with the Titans if he sneaks past whoever is picking at No. 3. Surrounding second-year quarterback Cam Ward with playmakers is a wise decision, even if new head coach Robert Saleh is pushing to inject the defense with more talent. The odds for Bailey, Reese, and Styles reflect the possibility that either Love is already off the board or Tennessee grants Saleh's wish.
No. 5 overall odds
| Player (Position) | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Jordyn Tyson (WR) | +225 | 30.8% |
| Sonny Styles (LB) | +250 | 28.6% |
| Caleb Downs (S) | +300 | 25% |
| Jeremiyah Love (RB) | +300 | 25% |
| Arvell Reese (EDGE) | +700 | 12.5% |
| Francis Mauigoa (OL) | +1200 | 7.7% |
The Giants traded away a run-stopper in Dexter Lawrence. Replacing him with another player who can defend the run, albeit at a different position, makes a ton of sense. Linebacker Styles is the kind of player that new head coach John Harbaugh would love. After Styles, this market is full of players the Giants may be able to get with their next pick at No. 10, including Downs, Mauigoa, and Tyson.
No. 6 overall odds
| Player (Position) | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Carnell Tate (WR) | +300 | 25.0% |
| Spencer Fano (OL) | +350 | 22.2% |
| Sonny Styles (LB) | +425 | 19% |
| Jordyn Tyson (WR) | +500 | 16.7% |
| Francis Mauigoa (OL) | +700 | 12.5% |
| Monroe Freeling (OL) | +1000 | 9.1% |
| Kadyn Proctor (OL) | +1100 | 8.3% |
| Caleb Downs (S) | +1600 | 5.9% |
The Browns are another top-10 team likely looking to move out of their slot, and that concept is baked into these odds. Cleveland needs wide receiver help, so Tate is the favorite, but Styles' odds factor in a potential trade. If the Giants pass on the Ohio State linebacker, plenty of teams would be willing to jump in front of the Commanders to take him. The Browns also need offensive line help, which is why four linemen are in consideration.
No. 7 overall odds
| Player (Position) | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Carnell Tate (WR) | +225 | 30.8% |
| Sonny Styles (LB) | +250 | 28.6% |
| Jeremiyah Love (RB) | +500 | 16.7% |
| Jordyn Tyson (WR) | +600 | 14.3% |
| Mansoor Delane (CB) | +700 | 12.5% |
| Caleb Downs (S) | +900 | 10.0% |
| Rueben Bain Jr. (EDGE) | +900 | 10.0% |
The Commanders could go in any number of directions here. If Love or Styles falls this far, one of them will be a Commander. That seems unlikely given the teams picking ahead of Washington, which is why two wide receivers - Tate and Tyson - are also among the favorites.
No. 8 overall odds
| Player (Position) | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Jordyn Tyson (WR) | +200 | 33.3% |
| Mansoor Delane (CB) | +450 | 18.2% |
| Carnell Tate (WR) | +475 | 17.4% |
| Caleb Downs (S) | +600 | 14.3% |
| Rueben Bain Jr. (EDGE) | +750 | 11.8% |
The Saints could be the team that jumps up to No. 3 and takes Reese or Bailey. However, the odds suggest that if they stick with their pick, they'll select a wide receiver to provide second-year quarterback Tyler Shough with some help. Both wideouts may be gone by this point, though, which is why Delane and Bain have short odds.
No. 9 overall odds
| Player (Position) | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Mansoor Delane (CB) | +325 | 23.5% |
| Rueben Bain Jr. (EDGE) | +425 | 19% |
| Jordyn Tyson (WR) | +450 | 18.2% |
| Spencer Fano (OL) | +650 | 13.3% |
| Francis Mauigoa (OL) | +800 | 11.1% |
| Kenyon Sadiq (TE) | +1200 | 7.7% |
| Caleb Downs (S) | +1200 | 7.7% |
| Carnell Tate (WR) | +1200 | 7.7% |
| Monroe Freeling (OL) | +1600 | 5.9% |
The Chiefs have the luxury of picking whoever falls to them, with Tyson and Bain being the favorites to do so. Bain would slot in perfectly beside defensive tackle Chris Jones, but they could also bolster their offensive line to help protect Patrick Mahomes, who is recovering from a torn ACL.
No. 10 overall odds
| Player (Position) | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Caleb Downs (S) | +280 | 26.3% |
| Jordyn Tyson (WR) | +325 | 23.5% |
| Olaivavega Ioane (OL) | +550 | 15.4% |
| Francis Mauigoa (OL) | +650 | 13.3% |
| Mansoor Delane (CB) | +1000 | 9.1% |
| Spencer Fano (OL) | +1100 | 8.3% |
Whoever the Giants take with this pick will complete the Lawrence trade. Downs is the favorite, but that selection makes the most sense if the Giants have already taken an offensive player at No. 5. If the Giants pick Styles, look for them to bypass Downs and either take Tyson if he's available or add to their offensive line.
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