While Fernando Mendoza going first overall in next week's NFL draft is as close to a certainty as you'll get, nobody seems to know when the second quarterback will be taken.
Alabama's Ty Simpson is projected as the next signal-caller off the board, but opinions differ on where he'll land - he's either a mid-first-round selection or an early Day 2 pick.
Simpson's draft position over-under is set at 23.5, with the over (pick 24 and higher) having odds of -235 (70.1% implied probability) on theScore Bet. The Cardinals and Jets are also considered the most likely teams to select him.
Team to draft Ty Simpson
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Cardinals | +110 |
| Jets | +230 |
| Rams | +500 |
| Steelers | +900 |
| Browns | +1200 |
| Buccaneers | +1400 |
| Vikings | +1800 |
| Dolphins | +2500 |
| Panthers | +3000 |
| Eagles | +3000 |
🏈 Bet on all NFL draft markets available with theScore Bet here
The Cardinals have a glaring need at quarterback after cutting Kyler Murray this offseason. Jacoby Brissett was a serviceable replacement last year and is slated to be their starter in 2026, but he's not a long-term option. Arizona holds the third overall pick in the draft but won't reach for a quarterback that early. However, the team also possesses the 34th pick. Although it's obvious why the Cardinals would be the favorites in this market, there's no guarantee they'll choose Simpson.
The Jets have the 33rd overall pick, positioning them to potentially poach Simpson from the Cardinals at the start of the second round. New York has struggled to find an answer under center for years and brought back Geno Smith for a second stint as the likely starter in 2026.
The combined odds of the Cardinals and Jets imply a 77.9% chance that Simpson is picked by one of those two.
What often happens with fringe first-round quarterbacks is that teams at the top of the Day 2 draft board trade into the first round to pick them, which allows the club to secure a valuable fifth-year option on the rookie contract. That scenario will likely happen with Simpson, considering his odds of being selected in the first round are -125 (55.6% implied probability).
The only team with a pick near the bottom of the first round with question marks at quarterback is Miami at No. 30. But after signing Malik Willis to a three-year, $67.5-million deal in the offseason, the Dolphins will likely give the keys to him for at least 2026. That makes them an ideal candidate to trade their pick to the Jets, Cardinals, or another suitor looking to add Simpson late in the first round.
One team to monitor is the Steelers, who are still waiting for Aaron Rodgers to decide his future. Rodgers has time to inform the franchise of his intentions, but Pittsburgh may want to have a plan in place. Selecting Simpson with the 21st overall pick could be the route it takes.
The Rams (+500) would likely need to trade down in the first round to make Simpson a possibility, as selecting the former Alabama star with the 13th pick would be considered a big reach. Meanwhile, the Browns (+1200) drafted two quarterbacks last year and seem likely to roll with Sheduer Sanders in 2026 in hopes of landing a top pick in next year's draft, which projects to have a stronger quarterback class.
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