After an exciting Thursday slate, Brenden Deeg and Sam Oshtry are hitting on each of Friday's four games from a unique angle, including our favorite picks, underdogs, and survivor play to take us to the Elite Eight.
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🏀 No. 3 Michigan State (+1.5) over No. 2 UConn
These squads play contrasting defensive styles: Michigan State sells out to protect the rim, while UConn prioritizes the 3-point line. That favors the Spartans. They get downhill and crash the offensive glass for extra scoring opportunities, where they'll have a huge advantage over UConn. The size of St. John's overwhelmed UConn in two of their three matchups, and Michigan State's similar personnel should allow the team to execute the same game plan.
I don't trust the Huskies' guards as much as the Spartans' backcourt either. UConn's relied on its bigs so far in this tourney, but they won't be as dominant against Michigan State's frontcourt. Meanwhile, Jeremy Fears Jr., who's recorded 27 assists in two tournament games, is the best and most reliable floor general in this matchup. - Oshtry
🏀 No. 6 Tennessee (+3.5) over No. 2 Iowa State
Iowa State didn't need All-American Joshua Jefferson to destroy Kentucky last week, but this is a bad matchup for the Cyclones if he can't go. All signs suggest Jefferson will miss Friday night's game, and Tennessee is a different animal than Kentucky.
The Volunteers rank 14th in defensive efficiency according to KenPom and, more importantly, sit inside the top 20 in opponent 3-point field-goal percentage. They do a tremendous job of closing out on shooters, which will make it tough for Iowa State's half-court offense to rely on outside looks. Tennessee's biggest advantage in the game is on the glass: The Vols are first in offensive rebounding. Iowa State is a mediocre rebounding team with Jefferson in the lineup, and the Cyclones will struggle to contain second-chance opportunities without him.
This feels closer to a pick-'em type of game, and you get 3.5 points to work with on Tennessee's side. I'll ride with the Volunteers to keep this tight or win outright and book a trip to the Elite Eight. - Deeg
🏀 No. 1 Michigan team total over 91.5
This spread feels like a nightmare for bettors considering how hot Alabama can get on any given night. I think there's a scenario where Bama can keep this close, but the most likely outcome is Michigan lighting up the scoreboard.
The Crimson Tide finished the season 343rd in points allowed per contest and face a Wolverines team that ranked ninth in points per game. Alabama loves to play fast, and Michigan can match its pace, sitting in the top 60 in tempo this season. The Wolverines have gone over this total in both tournament games and now get one of the worst defenses in the country by basically any metric you can find. Don't overthink it: Roll with one of the country's best offenses to keep racking up points. - Deeg
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🏀 No. 5 St. John's (+230) over No. 1 Duke
This is a tough matchup for a Duke team that relies on its interior presence. St. John's defensive strength is protecting the rim with Zuby Ejiofor and Dillon Mitchell on the frontline. Cameron Boozer and Duke's entire offense will have a tough time scoring inside. The Blue Devils could get hot from long range, but they're a 35% 3-point shooting team that's been inconsistent from deep this season.
This will be a low-scoring game featuring two of the nation's best defenses. While defenses have packed the paint and left St. John's open from three, the Red Storm have been willing to launch from deep. It's hard to imagine Duke pulling away here, and when it's close late, Rick Pitino has proven to be a much more trustworthy coach than Jon Scheyer.
It's also worth noting that Caleb Foster's status is uncertain. He hasn't played since March 7 with a foot injury, and Duke has looked mortal without him. Foster's eight points per game don't jump off the page, but he's crucial to everything Duke does on both ends. Whether he plays or not might be the difference. - Oshtry
Oshtry - Michigan
Iowa State is the obvious pick Friday, but we burned the Cyclones in the Round of 32. Although rolling with the national title favorite this early is scary, we're in survive-and-advance mode. It's hard to imagine Michigan losing to Alabama. Plus, it might not be the worst thing to pick Michigan now if you think Arizona would beat the Wolverines in a potential Final Four showdown.
If you get through the Sweet 16 in your survivor pool, make sure to pay attention to the rules for the Elite Eight. Some contests require you to pick one team for the entire round, while others make you pick two teams from the four Elite Eight matchups.
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