When Joel Embiid was announced as active for Game 4 against the Celtics after missing the series' first three games, the spread moved in the 76ers' favor. The same happened with the Spurs, who were 1.5-point favorites in Game 3 without Victor Wembanyama and 5.5-point favorites in Game 4 with him. When Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves return to the Lakers, how much will it impact their odds?
The NBA playoffs are a war of attrition. The best team isn't always crowned the champion; sometimes it comes down to which contender can stay the healthiest. With so many stars moving in and out of the lineup, a player's value to their team is worth further assessment as an injury-ravaged postseason rolls on. Using insight from oddsmakers, we've determined the most valuable players against the spread and how many points they're worth.
Tier 1 - Serious line-movers
| Player (Team) | ATS value (Points) |
|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) | 5.5 |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder) | 4 |
| Victor Wembanyama (Spurs) | 4 |
| Luka Doncic (Lakers) | 3.5 |
It's not surprising that oddsmakers view the finalists for the NBA's top individual award as the most valuable players. The advanced analytics support their findings: Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Wembanyama, and Doncic make up the league's top four in VORP and BPM, two widely used advanced stats that determine a player's impact.
Although Jokic is, by his standards, having a poor series as the Nuggets trail the Timberwolves 3-2, he's indispensable to Denver's operation.
In Game 3 without Wembanyama, the Spurs closed as 1.5-point favorites. San Antonio won despite his absence, thanks to Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper combining for 60 points. However, Wembanyama returned the following game, and San Antonio jumped to a 5.5-point favorite. The Defensive Player of the Year proved his worth in a lopsided victory, as the Spurs overcame a 19-point deficit by holding the Trail Blazers to 35 second-half points.
Meanwhile, Doncic hasn't played in the postseason because of a hamstring injury. The Lakers, who were huge underdogs entering their series against the Rockets without their top two guards, are shockingly up 3-1. Doncic could return in the second round, which would move the line significantly in a potential matchup against the Thunder.
Tier 2 - Ceiling-raisers
| Player (Team) | ATS value (Points) |
|---|---|
| Cade Cunningham (Pistons) | 3 |
| Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves) | 3 |
| Jaylen Brown (Celtics) | 2.5 |
| Deni Avdija (Trail Blazers) | 2.5 |
| Tyrese Maxey (76ers) | 2.5 |
Although Cade Cunningham is the Pistons' entire offensive engine, they went 13-5 without him this season. He's shooting a disappointing 42% from the field and 28% from three in the postseason, but that stems from Detroit's lack of shooting and creation around him.
Anthony Edwards suffered a knee contusion in Minnesota's Game 4 win, and the Wolves are now underdogs in the series despite leading 3-2, which tells you everything about his value to the team.
Some of the names in this tier may not be considered typical top-end stars, but that's not how oddsmakers evaluate their worth. Crucial factors include the team's overall depth and whether it has a suitable backup option, which explains why a holds more value than Jalen Brunson despite the latter being universally recognized as the better player. Oddsmakers believe the Knicks are more capable of functioning without their All-NBA point guard than the Blazers can without their All-Star forward.
Tier 3 - Difference-makers
| Player (Team) | ATS value (Points) |
|---|---|
| Joel Embiid (76ers) | 2 |
| Jalen Brunson (Knicks) | 2 |
| Donovan Mitchell (Cavaliers) | 2 |
| Evan Mobley (Cavaliers) | 2 |
| James Harden (Cavaliers) | 2 |
| Jayson Tatum (Celtics) | 2 |
| Scottie Barnes (Raptors) | 2 |
| Kevin Durant (Rockets) | 2 |
| Paolo Banchero (Magic) | 1.5 |
| Franz Wagner (Magic) | 1.5 |
Embiid's return only slightly shifted the spread, as the Sixers remain home underdogs versus the Celtics. Oddsmakers were proven right after Boston annihilated Philadelphia 128-96 in Game 4.
Jayson Tatum is considered a top-tier player, but Boston won 56 games and finished as the Eastern Conference's two-seed despite not having him for most of the season. Because Jaylen Brown performed at an MVP-level without his co-star, he's thought to be more valuable at the moment.
The spreads between the Rockets and Lakers have consistently swung back and forth based on Kevin Durant's unpredictable playing status. Reaves, Jalen Williams, and Aaron Gordon are other pivotal players dealing with injuries, but oddsmakers don't deem their presence worth more than one point to the spread.
Gordon's impact can be measured by how much more effective the Nuggets are with him on the floor versus off: 10 points better per 100 possessions. But oddsmakers see him as a secondary option to Jokic and Jamal Murray. The Thunder's depth allows oddsmakers not to overreact to Williams' injury, especially after Oklahoma City won 64 games despite him only playing in 33.
Even one of the greatest players of all time doesn't move the line like he used to. However, oddsmakers say LeBron James is currently worth around four points to the spread with Doncic and Reaves sidelined. This list assumes that the pair will return soon, which would relegate James to a secondary option.
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