NBA teams that go up 2-0 in a seven-game series win 93% of the time, and three of the eight first-round series stand at 2-0. Which of those three trailing teams has the best chance to beat the odds? Let's rank them in order of least to most likely to come back.
3. Suns (+3500) vs. Thunder (-50000)
The talent gap between the Thunder and Suns is as wide as you'll find in any first-round matchup, and that's been obvious in Oklahoma City's 35-point and 13-point wins. The Thunder's dominance starts on defense: They held Phoenix to 35% shooting in Game 1 and 46% in Game 2. OKC forces turnovers at the highest rate in the league. In the opener, the Suns committed 19 turnovers leading to 34 Thunder points, and followed that up with 22 turnovers for 22 Thunder points Wednesday. Whether or not the Thunder are making shots, they've been able to stifle the Suns' below-average offense.
The only sliver of optimism for the Suns is that injury luck is tilting in their favor. Jalen Williams left Game 2 with a left hamstring injury, and his status is uncertain. While Williams only appeared in 33 games this season, he's a pivotal part of the Thunder's championship hopes and was playing the best basketball of his season this series. For Phoenix, Grayson Allen, sidelined with a hamstring injury, might return for Game 3. Jordan Goodwin missed Game 2 with a calf injury but could also be back.
2. Raptors (+900) vs. Cavaliers (-2000)
It's not complicated: The Cavaliers' stars are outplaying the Raptors' stars. Toronto's effort improved in Game 2, but its point-of-attack defense doesn't have enough ball-stoppers to limit Cleveland's backcourt. James Harden and Donovan Mitchell scored or assisted on nearly 70% of the Cavs' 115 points.
Meanwhile, the Raptors haven't been able to exploit the Cavs' lackluster perimeter defense. They lack reliable scoring and shot-creation, especially with Brandon Ingram shooting 8-for-24 through two games.
At the same time the Raptors' defense improved in Game 2, they shot 27% from three. Returning to Toronto should boost their shooting and help Ingram find his rhythm. They need him to play at an All-Star level to remain competitive. Although the Raptors are facing a talent disadvantage, they're only 2.5-point home underdogs in Thursday night's Game 3.
1. Rockets (+115) vs. Lakers (-135)
In the second season of Netflix's "Starting 5," Kevin Durant argued that offense is much more valuable than defense. "If you want to win," he concluded, "you gotta make shots."
The Rockets have done everything but make shots so far this postseason. Houston failed to reach 100 points in either contest, shooting 38% from the field and 33% from three in Game 1 followed by 40% from the field and 24% from distance in Game 2. It's even more painful because they're generating so many extra opportunities with their offensive rebounding.
Houston is grabbing an average of 19 offensive boards, resulting in 27 more shot attempts than the Lakers in Game 1 and 17 more in Game 2. But poor spacing and shooting have turned those chances into empty possessions.
Durant returned in Game 2 after missing the opener and committed nine turnovers while trying to run an offense that doesn't have a point guard or consistent spacing. Alperen Sengun needs to be better after shooting 38% in the opening two games, and Reed Sheppard must play more, even if he starts out cold.
The Lakers are only slight favorites despite their series lead, which is surprising - LeBron James has never lost a series after going up 2-0. Houston entered the series as a massive -800 favorite, and oddsmakers aren't wavering.
James is throwing haymakers at Father Time, carrying a team full of role players. Luke Kennard has thrived, and Marcus Smart has provided dependable two-way play.
The Lakers have the best player in the series, a clear coaching edge, and potential reinforcements on the way in Austin Reaves and Luka Doncic, but as it stands, the Rockets are the deeper and more talented group. They just have to start making shots.
Sam Oshtry is a sports writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more basketball coverage.
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