The NBA playoffs aren't March Madness. Upsets are rare as the more talented team usually advances in a seven-game series, but favorites aren't invincible. Here are four first-round matchups where the underdog could pull off the upset, and how they might do it.
No. 4 Lakers over No. 5 Rockets
| Rockets | Lakers | |
|---|---|---|
| Series winner | -800 | +475 |
| Series spread | -1.5 (-340) | +1.5 (+270) |
The path to a Lakers upset hinges on a Luka Doncic comeback and LeBron James turning back the clock. Doncic is currently rehabbing a hamstring injury in Los Angeles, but there's no timetable for his return.
Though James is used to carrying undermanned playoff teams, he's now 41. Still, since Doncic went down, he's averaged 25.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 11 assists in four games. And doubting James has been a losing proposition for two decades.
The Lakers' biggest weakness is their size and frontcourt depth against the league's top offensive rebounding team. However, L.A. thrives in close contests, boasting the NBA's best clutch net rating and a 22-8 record in clutch games. Doncic was the catalyst behind that, but James remains a dependable closer under pressure.
Meanwhile, the Rockets have a minus-8.8 clutch net rating, the NBA's seventh-worst mark. Their offense collapses late in games without a true point guard, as they struggle to initiate offense against ball pressure. If the Lakers can keep contests close, they'll have an edge down the stretch. And who knows, maybe Doncic will return halfway through the series.
No. 6 Timberwolves over. No. 3 Nuggets
| Nuggets | Timberwolves | |
|---|---|---|
| Series winner | -340 | +270 |
| Series spread | -1.5 (-150) | +1.5 (+120) |
Anthony Edwards knows there's a rivalry between him and the Nuggets. In 2023, Denver beat Minnesota in five games en route to a title. The following season, the Timberwolves defeated the Nuggets in an intense seven-game series.
Although Denver's 21st-ranked defense has been abysmal at times, key defenders Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson have combined to miss 74 games this season. Gordon is healthy, but Watson, who would frequently guard Edwards, might not return for the series.
A prolific scorer and pick-and-roll operator, Edwards should dominate the Nuggets' pitiful ball-screen defense while targeting Nikola Jokic. Julius Randle, Jaden McDaniels, and others must also consistently make shots as Edwards performs like a superstar.
Denver's offense is nearly unstoppable, but Minnesota has a blueprint to contain the league's best unit with elite rim-protecter Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels, who will guard Jamal Murray. The Wolves will mix that strategy with double-teams, forcing the Nuggets' supporting cast to beat them. The final key for Minnesota is keeping Denver off the foul line. The Nuggets rank fourth in free-throw rate, while the Timberwolves have the sixth-worst opponent free-throw rate.
No. 6 Hawks over No. 3 Knicks
| Knicks | Hawks | |
|---|---|---|
| Series winner | -270 | +220 |
| Series spread | -1.5 (-110) | +1.5 (-110) |
The Hawks' 19-5 regular-season finish might be slightly inflated. During that run, they beat just three top-six teams in either conference, with two of those wins coming against the Pistons without Cade Cunningham and the Cavaliers without Donovan Mitchell.
Atlanta has a top-five defense since Feb. 1, but it must change its approach against the Knicks. In their most recent meeting, the Hawks had Onyeka Okongwu guard Karl-Anthony Towns and were torched by the Jalen Brunson-Towns pick-and-roll. When a wing covers Towns and a center defends Josh Hart, the Brunson-Towns two-man game becomes significantly less effective. The Hawks need to adjust from their regular-season game plan to disrupt the Knicks' offense.
New York's clutch offense was the difference-maker in its two regular-season wins over Atlanta. Behind Brunson's brilliance, the Knicks have the league's best fourth-quarter net rating and third-best clutch offense. Meanwhile, the Hawks' clutch offense ranks in the bottom half. Jalen Johnson is a terrific creator and distributor, but he - and the rest of Atlanta's roster - has yet to consistently generate quality offense in late-game situations. While the Hawks are talented enough to contend with New York, they must improve their late-game execution to pull out the upset.
No. 5 Raptors over No. 4 Cavaliers
| Cavs | Raptors | |
|---|---|---|
| Series winner | -550 | +380 |
| Series spread | -1.5 (-230) | +1.5 (+180) |
The Raptors rank in the bottom five in both 3-point attempts and makes. They'll need to shoot the ball well to keep pace with the Cavs' offense, but there's reason for optimism. Since the All-Star break, Toronto has shot 39% on catch-and-shoot threes, a top-10 mark. Additionally, Cleveland's point-of-attack defense is vulnerable, giving Brandon Ingram and Scottie Barnes opportunities to create quality shots.
The Cavs are an offensive juggernaut when healthy, but the Raptors finished with the league's fifth-best defense and have the versatility to remain flexible with matchups. And considering Cleveland added one of the most notorious playoff chokers in James Harden at the trade deadline and that its core has disappointed in the playoffs before, it's hard to trust the Cavs to beat anybody.
Sam Oshtry is a sports writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more basketball coverage.
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