The Spurs are the 2-seed in the West and have the second-best odds to win both the conference and the NBA Finals. They've also received the most money to win the championship on theScore Bet. However, Spurs believers are ignoring an NBA principle that has existed since the league's inception: Experience is one of the most valuable commodities in the playoffs.
NBA title odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Thunder | +115 |
| Spurs | +480 |
| Celtics | +525 |
| Nuggets | +900 |
| Cavaliers | +1200 |
| Pistons | +1800 |
| Knicks | +1800 |
| Timberwolves | +4000 |
| Rockets | +5000 |
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Seven Spurs players average double figures in scoring, but six of them have never appeared in a playoff game. De'Aaron Fox is the lone exception, and he's played in just a single playoff series.
No team in modern NBA history has won a title without most of its core having competed in prior postseasons. Since 1980, only the 2008 Celtics, 2020 Lakers, and 2022 Warriors went from missing the playoffs the previous season to winning the championship. However, Paul Pierce, LeBron James, and Steph Curry - the three Finals MVPs from those teams - all had extensive playoff history, as did their supporting casts.
More apt comparisons include the 1995 Magic, who lost in the Finals, and the 2015 Warriors, who won the title; both teams fell in the first round the year before they embarked on surprising runs. A Spurs championship - even a Western Conference title - would defy NBA precedent.
The 2024 Thunder bear the strongest resemblance to this youthful Spurs squad. After Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Co. earned the West's top seed, their inexperience showed in a pair of crucial second-round games against the Mavericks. Although Oklahoma City bowed out in the conference semifinals, the experience it gained paid dividends the next year, when the team became the second youngest in NBA history to capture a championship.
The Thunder proved that young teams can win, but even they needed some playoff experience before lifting the Larry O'Brien Trophy.
After missing the playoffs last season, Mitch Johnson's group has won the most games in the NBA since the calendar flipped to 2026. If San Antonio continues on a similar trajectory to Oklahoma City, though, an early playoff exit may await.
The obvious counterpoint is that precedent can be tossed out the window when an alien steps on the court. Victor Wembanyama, who's averaging 25 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 3.1 assists, already has a case as the most impactful defender ever. His unique combination of size and agility commands attention from opposing defenses. And at the other end of the court, he doesn't allow any clean looks at the rim, forcing opponents to make more U-turns than a lost driver without directions.
The problem is that Wembanyama plays less than 30 minutes per game. The number of minutes stars play typically rises during the postseason, and the playoffs are a war of attrition. Can the 7-foot-4 big man handle an expanded workload coupled with heightened physicality and intensity over two months? Without proof, it's hard to believe so.
The Nuggets' starters, whom the Spurs will likely face in the second round, have played in a combined 322 playoff games, 315 more than San Antonio's starters. Denver has also reached the mountaintop before, in 2023. And the Thunder, who will almost surely glide to the Western Conference finals, are the reigning champions. The Spurs' road to the Finals is far from easy.
While San Antonio defeated Oklahoma City in four of five regular-season meetings, regular-season success doesn't always translate to the playoffs. Last year, the Celtics swept the season series against the Knicks before losing to them in six games in the conference semifinals. Considering the gap in experience, along with potential schematic and personnel advantages, Denver (+600) and OKC (-150) are better bets to win the West.
San Antonio masterfully constructed a roster around Wembanyama that features skillful guards, catch-and-shoot wings, and strong depth. The only item it's missing is playoff experience. Until they go through the trials and tribulations other champions have, the Spurs will wait their turn.
Sam Oshtry is a sports writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more basketball coverage.
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