Running analysis of MLB wild-card round

Our baseball writers share their observations and insights throughout this week's AL and NL wild-card rounds. Tap here to see the full playoff bracket and every team's path to the World Series.

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Padres' arms silence Cubs' bats

The Chicago Cubs came into the NL wild-card series owning arguably the best offense in baseball. They scored the most runs and had the best team wRC+ in the majors, while hitting the most homers among NL clubs. And of course, it was all led by 40-40 sparkplug and likely NL MVP Pete Crow-Armstrong.

Then the Cubs flew to San Diego. Apparently, their bats were left behind at O'Hare.

In two games against the Padres, Chicago's vaunted offense went 8-for-62 with one extra-base hit - a Nico Hoerner double in the ninth inning of Game 2 - and just one run scored. Hoerner accounted for over half of the team's hits in the series. Crow-Armstrong was completely neutralized, going 0-for-7 with one walk and four strikeouts; Alex Bregman also went 0-for-7. It's not as if they didn't have chances: the Cubs drew walks against Michael King, even as he threw six no-hit innings in Game 1, and got to Padres starter Nick Pivetta in the third and fourth innings. But they scratched out just the one total run and left 15 runners on base, including six in Wednesday's game.

Everyone knew coming into this series that the Cubs' pitching was going to be an issue. Their staff was decimated by injuries, and manager Craig Counsell didn't have many options to choose from. It didn't help that Game 2 starter Kevin Gausman, the team's prized deadline acquistion, didn't make it out of the fourth inning while allowing three runs and striking out just one batter. But if pitching was the Cubs' obvious weakness, the offense had to do its part in a short series. They picked the wrong time to go silent, and as a result, they're headed home early.

San Diego, meanwhile, neutralized that Cubs offense once again with a brilliant performance from the entire staff. Pivetta held his own during his abbreviated start, and manager Craig Stammen turned it over to his shutdown bullpen. Bradgley Rodriguez, Jason Adam, Adrian Morejon, and Mason Miller combined to allow two hits over the final 5 2/3 innings Wednesday. Any questions about the rotation beyond King are quickly put to rest when this bullpen goes to work. Stammen, a former reliever himself, is not afraid to deploy his bullpen aggressively to win ballgames - and the unit repays his trust by getting the job done consistently.

The Padres also flexed their offensive muscle, but unlike in Game 1, it was the supporting cast who did much of the work. Rookie catcher Ethan Salas - the youngest backstop to ever appear in a playoff game - drove in an RBI, and Gavin Sheets electrified Petco Park with a pinch-hit, two-run homer in the fourth inning. Sheets' homer showed just how deep and dangerous the Padres can be. The Milwaukee Brewers are going to have their work cut out in the division series.

Yankees embarrass rivals in back-to-back postseasons

This was a destruction at every level.

The Yankees annihilated their rivals from Boston during a quick sweep of a wild-card series that felt like it was between two teams playing at completely different levels.

This was a rough series for Red Sox manager Chad Tracy, and should serve as a warning to Craig Breslow and the front office that this lineup construction is not one that can win in October. The Red Sox had baseball's worst offense down the stretch in the regular season, and that didn't change in the wild-card series. It felt like the Red Sox, who didn't record a hit with a runner on base against the Yankees, was out of both games once they went down 1-0.

Tracy didn't do himself many favors, as the game seemed to speed up on him multiple times throughout the series. Managing a team that can't score isn't easy, to be fair, but the rookie skipper still stepped on every rake imaginable. Tracy took his starters out too early, was far too reliant on struggling reliever Erik Miller, punted Game 1 late, and completely misused his best relievers Garrett Whitlock, Garrett Crochet, and Aroldis Chapman. A Boston bullpen that had the best ERA in the majors during the regular season surrendered 15 runs in 6 2/3 innings to a Yankees lineup that's missing Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton.

Breslow's Red Sox teams are now 1-4 in the postseason, and they've been outscored 27-8. If there's something constructive to take from this series for Boston, it's that significant changes to the roster construction need to happen.

The Red Sox were a resilient group that made history in turning their season around, but in the end proved to be nowhere near the contenders they should be at this point.

Boston's meltdown should take nothing away from a Yankees team that impressed in every facet of the game. New York dictated the pace of the series from the first pitch, and played a different brand of baseball - one we don't always see from Aaron Boone's side. We knew the starting pitching, led by Cam Schlittler and Max Fried, would likely dominate, but the way the offense scored in so many different ways - and to do it without Judge - was impressive to watch. They capitalized on every mistake, and minimized their own.

The Yankees' primary offensive success came from the long ball, but their approach also varied. New York's ability to scratch out base hits ensured there were runners on when the big swings came. A Yankees team known for striking out K'd just 14 times across the two games. The production at the bottom of the order was instrumental to their success, as their 5-through-9 hitters went 14-for-31 (.451) with 10 runs scored and just three strikeouts.

Things can change quickly from series to series - remember how the Yankees faltered in the ALDS last year after beating Boston? - but this looks like a different New York team. This looks like a squad that's equipped to make a deep run in October. - Brandon Wile

White Sox are just better than Houston

Sometimes, you don't need any barrels or fWAR or advanced stats to see it. Sometimes, all it takes is a glance at the scoreboard and the basic box score to see it. That's exactly how the Chicago White Sox-Houston Astros wild-card series shook out. Through their respective play during the two-game set, both teams proved beyond a reasonable doubt that the White Sox are simply the better team.

You could see it from the moment the series began, when the plucky young Sox took a first-inning lead in Game 1 and ruined the Astros' bullpen plans in the process. Then, manager Will Venable perfectly managed his own bullpen game to grab a firm hold of the series before Houston could process what happened.

In Game 2, they did it again, chasing Astros ace Hunter Brown before he could record a third out during a four-run first inning. The Astros chipped away against starter Sean Burke to make it a one-run game, but the White Sox stayed cool and collected. The bullpen bent but didn't break, and Venable again out-managed Joe Espada by being aggressive. Pinch-running for DH Andrew Benintendi with the speedy but light-hitting Luisangel Acuña in the top of the sixth paid off, as Acuña stole two bases to set up Chase Meidroth's homer that put the game - and series - on ice.

Record aside, the AL West-champion Astros are a veteran team with loads of playoff experience and the likely AL MVP anchoring their lineup. The young White Sox are coming off three straight 100-loss seasons and aren't supposed to be here. If you were watching for the first time, you'd think Chicago was the stoic, veteran team. The South Siders play loose, hard, and smart baseball, and will take the same grit and toughness that won them this series into the ALDS against a Cleveland squad that they know very well. The White Sox may end up going down against the Guardians, but they won't go quietly.

As for Houston, this meek showing felt like the true end of the franchise's golden era. The Astros looked listless, and at times even disinterested during the 18-inning series while being thoroughly outplayed in every facet of the game. Espada, who was essentially managing for his job, was outclassed throughout, even after giving him the benefit of the doubt with regard to his team's extreme lack of pitching. The boos that rained down on the home team were entirely justified. - Simon Sharkey-Gotlieb

Harper's redemption, Phillies vets key comeback

Bryce Harper wasn't about to have his season defined by a costly defensive misplay.

There's no way he could have sat with that all offseason.

Minutes after the Phillies outfielder's botched catch attempt allowed the Braves to plate two runs in the seventh inning, Harper crushed a game-tying homer that paved the way for Philadelphia's incredible, season-saving 4-3 comeback win in 10 innings.

Harper's mindset immediately after the blunder?

"I gotta come up big," he said postgame.

He certainly did that. In a game that could have ended the Phillies' season - and potentially this core as we know it - it was Harper's mental toughness that helped lead the Phillies back from the brink to extend the wild-card series to a winner-take-all Game 3.

Harper's homer was just one piece of an incredible comeback. Cristopher Sánchez pitched 6 2/3 strong innings. Kyle Schwarber homered in the at-bat before Harper went deep. Alec Bohm, who has endured plenty of highs and lows throughout his career in Philadelphia, hit the game-winning shot in the 10th. After the worst regular season of his career, J.T. Realmuto came up big on the defensive side in Game 2, making multiple key plays behind the plate and ending the game with a successful ABS challenge.

The youngsters also did their part. With Jhoan Duran down after his lengthy Game 1 outing, rookie Andrew Painter pitched three scoreless innings of relief to secure the final nine outs.

The Phillies' core clearly isn't ready to take their final bows in Atlanta. We'll see what they have left in the series finale.

Padres' stars came to play

At this time last year, the San Diego Padres were clinging to life at Wrigley Field. While they made it to Game 3 of the 2025 NL wild-card series against the Chicago Cubs, the Friars scored just five runs in that series en route to a quick exit.

The Padres drew the Cubs again for this year's wild-card showdown, but this time they have home-field advantage. And San Diego didn't just flip the script in Game 1: they imposed its will on a Cubs team that had the majors' best offense in the regular season. Michael King, who threw just one inning in last year's series, silenced Chicago's bats with seven innings of beautiful one-hit baseball. Nico Hoerner's bad-hop grounder that Manny Machado couldn't handle was all that stood between King and potentially making history.

And yet, King's dominance wasn't the best news of the night for the home side. San Diego immediately put its foot on the gas when Fernando Tatis Jr. crushed a first-pitch leadoff homer to get the home crowd rocking; two batters later, Machado went deep, and the rout was on in what ended as the largest shutout win in Padres' playoff history.

San Diego's received great contributions all year from glue guys like Ty France and Samad Taylor, both of whom were in the lineup Tuesday. But this team runs on its high-priced offensive stars, and will go nowhere if Tatis, Machado, Jackson Merrill, and Xander Bogaerts fall silent. That foursome stepped up big time, accounting for most of the damage in Game 1 by combining for eight of the Padres' 13 hits. Tatis and Machado also lend a special kind of swagger to this team - especially at the fortress that is Petco Park - that makes the entire club all the more intimidating. With their stars now clearly alive and well, the Padres made it clear that they are not a team you want to face this October.

For the Cubs, who've been dealing with a litany of pitching injuries all season, the Game 1 result is particularly disastrous. Life comes at you fast in a best-of-three series, and the Cubs have now left themselves with zero room for error after playing a disjointed and sloppy game in all facets. A disappearing offense is the last thing this team needed given their litany of pitching issues. - Simon Sharkey-Gotlieb

Schlittler is the Red Sox daddy

The Red Sox should do whatever it takes to avoid Cam Schlittler next postseason, and beyond.

The Massachusetts native - and currently the biggest villain in the Boston-New York rivalry - showed in Game 1 why he's one of the most dominant starting pitchers in the majors, and the heavy favorite to win the AL Cy Young award.

Schlittler tossed 6 1/3 shutout innings Tuesday, allowing just two hits and a walk to go with 10 strikeouts. He got a ridiculous 24 whiffs while surrendering just two hard-hit balls (both groundouts). His 117 pitches were the most by a Yankees starter in a playoff game since 2012. In two postseason starts against the Red Sox, Schlittler's thrown 14 1/3 shutout innings while striking out 22.

The 25-year-old certainly enjoys adding fuel to the rivalry, and he's more than backed up his words on social media on the field.

If the pitching performance wasn't encouraging enough, the Yankees - at least for one night - alleviated any concerns about what the offense can do without Aaron Judge. Ben Rice homered twice and drove in six runs to tie the Yankees' single-playoff game record, George Lombard Jr. collected three hits in his postseason debut, while Austin Wells finished with two hits and drove in a pair from the 9-hole. For all the money the Bronx Bombers spend, their Game 1 win was powered by homegrown talent.

Boston's biggest concern coming into this series was an offense that's been running on fumes. The Red Sox scored the fewest runs and had MLB's worst OPS in September. Those trends continued in Game 1, where they looked lifeless and completely overmatched. While some of that can be chalked up to facing Schlittler, the Red Sox did little once he left, and had one runner in scoring position all night.

A mediocre offense cost the Red Sox against New York in last year's wild-card series, and they're already quickly running out of time again. Roman Anthony's departure in Game 1 only adds to their issues as they try to save their season. - Brandon Wile

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White Sox pitch perfect bullpen game

It certainly won't go down in history as the most exciting postseason game, but the White Sox don't care. Chicago prevailed in a Game 1 battle of the bullpens, as five pitchers combined to allow three runs, keep Yordan Alvarez quiet, and push the Astros to the brink.

In order to have a successful bullpen game, your opener simply has to get the job done. From a Houston standpoint, Game 1 of this series was a perfect example of how quickly these games can unravel when that doesn't happen. Opener AJ Blubaugh didn't make it out of the first inning; Blubaugh and Bryan King combined to allow three runs (two earned) before converting the game's first three outs. Houston needed to use six more arms, including star closer Josh Hader while down three, just to get to the finish line. It was a slog.

Meanwhile, White Sox opener Hagen Smith quickly set the tone with three shutout innings, allowing the rest of the bullpen group to settle in quickly. The biggest lift came from Grant Taylor, who threw a career-high 54 pitches while striking out five to secure the final seven outs of the win. Manager Will Venable's choice to send Taylor back out for the ninth inning after a difficult eighth shows just how much trust he has in his closer. It was impressive to see so many young arms dominate for the White Sox in the biggest moments of their careers.

Despite being the more experienced playoff team by a wide margin, Houston looked overmatched throughout this game. In addition to the underwhelming pitching performance, the team's 1-through-6 hitters combined to go 3-for-22 without an extra-base hit. - Brandon Wile

Riley shows playoffs are clean slate

Austin Riley had the worst year of his career in 2026. The Braves third baseman posted a .654 OPS across 159 games during the regular season, and entered Game 1 in a 8-for-46 (.174) rut with just four RBIs over his previous 13 games.

But the beauty of the postseason is it provides anyone with the chance to be a hero, and Riley took advantage of his opportunity. With one swing, he changed the entire narrative surrounding his 2026 season - and he did that, smoking the game-winning homer of Jhoan Duran to send Truist Park into a frenzy.

Riley's stunning homer helped the Braves avoid spoiling the best playoff start of Chris Sale's decorated career, a result that would have been disastrous for the home side. Teams that win Game 1 of the best-of-three wild-card series under the current best-of-three format have advanced 88% of the time. Given Atlanta's lack of rotational depth behind Sale, Riley's swing couldn't have been any bigger. - Brandon Wile

Mattingly's aggressive decision was right call, even if it didn't work

The Phillies entered the wild-card series with some serious question marks surrounding their rotation. Jesús Luzardo only threw four pitches over the final three weeks of the season, and Zack Wheeler was forced to start Sunday just to get Philadelphia into the playoffs. Despite this, Luzardo was brilliant in Game 1, unexpectedly throwing five solid innings before departing a tie game.

Even though Luzardo did far more than interim manager Don Mattingly could have possibly imagined, bridging the innings between the lefty and star closer Jhoan Duran was never going to be easy. Rookie Alex McFarlane gave up the go-ahead run in the sixth, but the Phillies battled back, and after taking a 3-2 lead in the top of the seventh, Mattingly asked star closer Duran to try and get nine outs.

With the top of the Braves order coming up in the seventh, going to Duran that early was the correct decision. Even if Duran could only give the Phillies two innings, you want him pitching in the most high-leverage situation. Duran looked to be cruising too, securing five outs on 15 pitches before an infield single and hit-by-pitch in the eighth set the stage for Riley's game-winning home run.

Duran surrendered just two homers in 59 1/3 innings all season, and only one to a right-handed hitter. Knowing how important Game 1 is in a short series, and having the opportunity to steal a game in which Sale started, it makes sense why Mattingly was so eager to go to Duran early. Sometimes, the best move doesn't always work, but most managers would rather lose with their best on the mound. - Brandon Wile

Judge out, Crochet and Stanton in for wild-card series

The Yankees and Red Sox haven't even taken the field yet, and there's already plenty of drama surrounding this series.

New York didn't include Aaron Judge on the roster as he continues to rehab from a calf injury. As difficult a decision as it probably was for Aaron Boone, it was likely too risky if the three-time MVP couldn't run. If Judge played and then had to be removed from the roster due to injury, the Yankees would've lost him for a potential ALDS matchup as well. New York played well for most of the regular season without Judge, and it'll hope to extend its campaign long enough to get him back.

However, adding Giancarlo Stanton to the roster makes Judge's absence a little easier to swallow. The 36-year-old hasn't played since late April because of a calf injury, but he recently took live at-bats and was cleared to play. Stanton's inclusion is a massive boost for a Yankees team that lacks right-handed power. He's also been an elite postseason performer throughout his career - hitting 18 home runs with a .926 OPS in 48 games - and has historically crushed the Red Sox. Boone couldn't have both Judge and Stanton limited to pinch-hitting duties, so it made the most sense to pick the healthier option.

The Red Sox made their own shocking roster addition by including Garrett Crochet, who's also been sidelined since late April. The left-hander will serve in a relief role since he hasn't been stretched out. While it's hard to predict Crochet's effectiveness, he has the potential to be an elite bullpen weapon and could combat New York's left-handed sluggers Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. Part of Boston's decision to include Crochet likely comes from his experience pitching in relief, as he spent his first three MLB seasons as a reliever before converting to a starter. Don't be surprised if the Red Sox throw Crochet in a massive spot in this series. - Brandon Wile

The wild-card round should be excellent

MLB's playoff format could use a revamp - especially the seeding - but regardless of that, we should be treated to four very entertaining series.

Despite stumbling into the postseason, the Phillies have enough firepower to give the Braves a fight, and it won't be a shock if that series between division rivals gets a bit heated. Both teams know their championship windows are growing smaller. While the White Sox-Astros series features the two worst records among the playoff teams and will be started by openers, it also features Munetaka Murakami and Yordan Alvarez. This series really doesn't have a favorite. We're getting a glimpse of the twilight of Houston's AL dynasty, while the young team from Chicago hopes to take its first steps toward its own sustained run of success.

Yankees-Red Sox has grown a bit tame in recent years, but at its core it remains one of the best rivalries in sports. Meeting in the wild-card round for a second time in as many years should add some juice, as should the Game 1 pitching matchup. Cam Schlittler and Payton Tolle are both oozing confidence and personality and should immediately inject some life into the series. New York went 7-6 against Boston during the regular season, and it'll be great to see how the contrasting styles go head-to-head. In a rematch of last year's wild-card series, the Cubs and Padres will play once again in what could be the best matchup of the four. The two clubs finished first and second in runs scored after the All-Star break, and who doesn't want to see Fernando Tatis Jr. go toe-to-toe with Pete Crow-Armstrong? It's a shame this series is only a best-of-three. - Brandon Wile

Looking at odds ahead of the postseason

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Surprise, surprise - the Dodgers are favored to win a third straight World Series with +225 odds (30.8% implied probability). Shohei Ohtani and Co. will wait for the winner of the Braves-Phillies series, while the Brewers, the second favorite to win it all, will face either the Padres or Cubs. A National League team winning the World Series is -180 (64.3%), thanks not only to the Dodgers' win probability but also because all six teams have a legitimate shot at becoming champs.

The Yankees and Rays are the top two options in the American League, but New York must beat the Red Sox in the wild-card round first before facing Tampa Bay in the divisional series. You could argue the 93-win Yankees have the toughest path to a World Series among the favorites, which is why their championship odds are longer than the Brewers'.

The Guardians may be the best value on the board at +1000. They'll face either the Astros or White Sox in the divisional series and have the easiest path among all playoff teams to a championship series berth. - Eric Patterson

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